The impact of thrombosis on probabilities of death and disease progression in polycythemia vera: a multistate transition analysis of 1,545 patients.

We applied a parametric Markov five-state model, on a well-characterized international cohort of 1,545 patients with polycythemia vera (PV; median age 61 years; females 51%), in order to examine the impact of incident thrombosis on the trajectory of death or disease progression. At a median follow-up of 6.9 years, 347 (23%) deaths, 50 (3%) blast phase (BP), and 138 (9%) fibrotic (post-PV MF) transformations were recorded. Incident thrombosis occurred at a rate of 2.62% pt/yr (arterial 1.59% and venous 1.05%). The probability of death, in the first 10 years, for 280 (18%) patients who developed thrombosis during follow-up was 40%, which was two-fold higher than that seen in the absence of thrombosis or any other transition state (20%; p < 0.01); the adverse impact from thrombosis was more apparent for arterial (HR 1.74; p < 0.01) vs venous thrombosis (p=NS) and was independent of other fixed (i.e., age, prior venous thrombosis, leukocytosis) or time-dependent (i.e., progression to BP or MF) risk variables. The transition probability to post-PV MF increased over time, in a linear fashion, with a rate of 5% capped at 5 and 10 years, in patients with or without incident thrombosis, respectively. The impact of thrombosis on transition probability to death or post-PV MF tapered off beyond 10 years and appeared to reverse direction of impact on MF evolution at the 12-year time point. These observations suggest thrombosis in PV to be a marker of aggressive disease biology or a disease-associated inflammatory state that is consequential to both thrombosis and disease progression.

A multistate model of survival prediction and event monitoring in prefibrotic myelofibrosis.

Among 382 patients with WHO-defined prefibrotic myelofibrosis (pre-PMF) followed for a median of 6.9 years, fibrotic or leukemic transformation or death accounts for 15, 7, and 27% of cases, respectively. A multistate model was applied to analyze survival data taking into account intermediate states that are part of the clinical course of pre-PMF, including overt PMF and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Within this multistate framework, multivariable models disclosed older age (>65 years) and leukocytosis (>15 × 109/L) as predictors of death and leukemic transformation. The risk factors for fibrotic progression included anemia and grade 1 bone marrow fibrosis. The outcome was further affected by high molecular risk (HMR) but not driver mutations. Direct transition to overt PMF, AML, or death occurred in 15.2, 4.7, and 17.3% of patients, respectively. The risk of AML was the highest in the first 5 years (7%), but leveled off thereafter. Conversely, the probability of death from overt PMF or AML increased more rapidly over time, especially when compared to death in the pre-PMF state without disease progression. The probability of being alive with pre-PMF status decreased to 70 and 30% at 10 and 20 years, respectively. This study highlights the aspects of the clinical course and estimates of disease progression in pre-PMF.

Validation of the IPSET score for thrombosis in patients with prefibrotic myelofibrosis.

Pre-fibrotic myelofibrosis (pre-PMF) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) are characterized by similarly increased rate of thrombotic events, but no study specifically analyzed risk factors for thrombosis in pre-PMF. In a multicenter cohort of 382 pre-PMF patients collected in this study, the rate of arterial and venous thrombosis after diagnosis was 1.0 and 0.95% patients/year. Factors significantly associated with arterial thrombosis were age, leukocytosis, generic cardiovascular risk factors, JAK2V617F and high molecular risk mutations, while only history of previous thrombosis, particularly prior venous thrombosis, was predictive of venous events. The risk of total thromboses was accurately predicted by the the international prognostic score for thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia (IPSET) score, originally developed for ET, and corresponded to 0.67, 2.05, and 2.95% patients/year in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories. IPSET was superior to both the conventional 2-tiered score and the revised IPSET in this cohort of pre-PMF patients. We conclude that IPSET score can be conveniently used for thrombosis risk stratification in patients with pre-PMF and might represent the basis for individualized management aimed at reducing the increased risk of major cardiovascular events. Further refinement of the IPSET score in pre-PMF might be pursued by additional, prospective studies evaluating the inclusion of leukocytosis and/or adverse mutational profile as novel variables.

European LeukemiaNet study on the reproducibility of bone marrow features in masked polycythemia vera and differentiation from essential thrombocythemia.

The purpose of the study was to assess consensus and interobserver agreement among an international panel of six hematopathologists regarding characterization and reproducibility of bone marrow (BM) histologic features used to diagnose early stage myeloproliferative neoplasms, in particular differentiation of so-called masked/prodromal polycythemia vera (mPV) from JAK2-mutated essential thrombocythemia (ET). The six members of the hematopathology panel evaluated 98 BM specimens independently and in a blinded fashion without knowledge of clinical data. The specimens included 48 cases of mPV according to the originally published hemoglobin threshold values for this entity (male: 16.0-18.4 g/dL, female: 15.0-16.4 g/dL), 31 cases with overt PV according to the updated 2016 WHO criteria, and 19 control cases. The latter group included cases of JAK2-mutated ET, primary myelofibrosis, myelodysplastic syndrome, and various reactive conditions. Inter-rater agreement between the panelists was very high (overall agreement 92.6%, kappa 0.812), particularly with respect to separating mPV from ET. Virtually all cases of mPV were correctly classified as PV according to their BM morphology. In conclusion, a central blinded review of histology slides by six hematopathologists demonstrated that highly reproducible specific histological pattern characterize PV and confirmed the notion that there are no significant differences between mPV and overt PV in relation to BM morphology.

Problems and pitfalls in grading of bone marrow fibrosis, collagen deposition and osteosclerosis - a consensus-based study.

AIMS: In the era of potentially disease-modifying agents such as Janus kinase inhibitors, accurate grading and differentiation of bone marrow (BM) fibrosis has become more relevant to assess staging of disease and therapeutic effects. However, different fibrosis grading models have been used in the past without uniformity, including the proposal by the World Health Organization. Current scoring systems are based only on reticulin fibrosis. Therefore, additional assessment of collagen and the grade of osteosclerosis appear to be essential to discriminate all components of the complex BM fibrous matrix. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated problems and pitfalls regarding staining techniques and the interpretation of reticulin fibrosis on a total of 352 samples. Furthermore, we propose a minor modification of the current grading and separate scoring for collagen deposition and osteosclerosis. Reproducibility of gradings was tested among 11 haematopathologists in a blinded assessment. Overall, the inter-rater reliability of all three grading systems ranged between 0.898 and 0.926. CONCLUSIONS: A standardized assessment of BM fibrosis with differentiation between reticulin, collagen and osteosclerosis is recommended to evaluate the various components of the fibrous matrix which may be delinked after therapy. In this regard, quality of staining and application of laboratory standards enable a highly reproducible scoring.

Long-term survival and blast transformation in molecularly annotated essential thrombocythemia, polycythemia vera, and myelofibrosis.

Janus kinase 2 (JAK2) mutations define polycythemia vera (PV). Calreticulin (CALR) and myeloproliferative leukemia virus oncogene (MPL) mutations are specific to JAK2-unmutated essential thrombocythemia (ET) and primary myelofibrosis (PMF). We examined the effect of these mutations on long-term disease outcome. One thousand five hundred eighty-one patients from the Mayo Clinic (n = 826) and Italy (n = 755) were studied. Fifty-eight percent of Mayo patients were followed until death; median survivals were 19.8 years in ET (n = 292), 13.5 PV (n = 267; hazard ratio [HR], 1.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-2.2), and 5.9 PMF (n = 267; HR, 4.5; 95% CI, 3.5-5.7). The survival advantage of ET over PV was not affected by JAK2/CALR/MPL mutational status. Survival in ET was inferior to the age- and sex-matched US population (P < .001). In PMF (n = 428), but not in ET (n = 576), survival and blast transformation (BT) were significantly affected by mutational status; outcome was best in CALR-mutated and worst in triple-negative patients: median survival, 16 vs 2.3 years (HR, 5.1; 95% CI, 3.2-8.0) and BT, 6.5% vs 25% (HR, 7.6; 95% CI, 2.8-20.2), respectively. We conclude that life expectancy in morphologically defined ET is significantly reduced but remains superior to that of PV, regardless of mutational status. In PMF, JAK2/CALR/MPL mutational status is prognostically informative.

High concordance in grading reticulin fibrosis and cellularity in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms.

The myeloproliferative neoplasms primary myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera, and, rarely, essential thrombocythemia are characterized by variable degrees of bone marrow fibrosis, either at presentation or upon progression. The increasing use of emerging therapies that may alter disease biology and morphology demands accurate and reproducible assessment of fibrosis grade. To assess concordance of hematopoietic cellularity and fibrosis grading, three hematopathologists independently evaluated a total of 728 bone marrow biopsies from 261 patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms on three clinical trials using fedratinib (SAR302503), a JAK2 inhibitor, including 249 taken at baseline and 479 on therapy. Concordance between the pathologists was evaluated by Pearson correlation coefficient (cellularity) and unweighted kappa statistic (fibrosis grade). There was high correlation of cellularity assessment (r=0.92) and fibrosis grading (kappa=0.83) between the three pathologists. Concordance with World Health Organization (WHO) grade 3 samples was higher compared with grades 0, 1, and 2. Concordance of fibrosis grading in pretreatment samples was superior to that of post-treatment samples (kappa=0.83 and 0.79, respectively, P=0.023). Our analysis suggests that the updated 2008 WHO reticulin fibrosis grading system is highly reproducible, even in patients undergoing JAK2 inhibitor therapy. This system is practically applicable to establish baseline fibrosis grade as well as changes in fibrosis in subsequent samples on therapy.

Revised response criteria for myelofibrosis: International Working Group-Myeloproliferative Neoplasms Research and Treatment (IWG-MRT) and European LeukemiaNet (ELN) consensus report.

The current document is a revision of the International Working Group-Myeloproliferative Neoplasms Research and Treatment (IWG-MRT) criteria for treatment response in myelofibrosis (MF) and represents a collaborative effort by the IWG-MRT and the European LeukemiaNet to objectively assess the value of new drugs in inducing morphologic remission or improvement in MF-associated symptomatic burden (MF-SB). Some of the changes in the current revision include stricter definitions of red cell transfusion dependency and independency and consideration of the Myeloproliferative Neoplasm Symptom Assessment Form as a tool to quantify meaningful changes in disease-related symptoms. Six response categories are listed: complete remission (CR) and partial remission signify treatment effects that are consistent with disease modification, whereas drug-induced improvements in MF-SB were annotated as clinical improvement, anemia response, spleen response, or symptoms response. Additional criteria are provided for progressive disease, stable disease, and relapse. The document also includes recommendations for assessing cytogenetic and molecular remissions, without mandating their inclusion for CR assignment.

Anagrelide compared with hydroxyurea in WHO-classified essential thrombocythemia: the ANAHYDRET Study, a randomized controlled trial.

High platelet counts in essential thrombocythemia (ET) can be effectively lowered by treatment with either anagrelide or hydroxyurea. In 259 previously untreated, high-risk patients with ET, diagnosed according to the World Health Organization classification system, the efficacy and tolerability of anagrelide compared with hydroxyurea were investigated in a prospective randomized noninferiority phase 3 study in an a priori-ordered hypothesis. Confirmatory proof of the noninferiority of anagrelide was achieved after 6 months using the primary end point criteria and was further confirmed after an observation time of 12 and 36 months for platelet counts, hemoglobin levels, leukocyte counts (P < .001), and ET-related events (HR, 1.19 [95% CI, 0.61-2.30], 1.03 [95% CI, 0.57-1.81], and 0.92 [95% CI, 0.57-1.46], respectively). During the total observation time of 730 patient-years, there was no significant difference between the anagrelide and hydroxyurea group regarding incidences of major arterial (7 vs 8) and venous (2 vs 6) thrombosis, severe bleeding events (5 vs 2), minor arterial (24 vs 20) and venous (3 vs 3) thrombosis and minor bleeding events (18 vs 15), or rates of discontinuation (adverse events 12 vs 15 or lack of response 5 vs 2). Disease transformation into myelofibrosis or secondary leukemia was not reported. Anagrelide as a selective platelet-lowering agent is not inferior compared with hydroxyurea in the prevention of thrombotic complications in patients with ET diagnosed according to the World Health Organization system. This trial was registered at http://www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01065038.

Development and validation of an International Prognostic Score of thrombosis in World Health Organization-essential thrombocythemia (IPSET-thrombosis).

Accurate prediction of thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia (ET) provides the platform for prospective studies exploring preventive measures. Current risk stratification for thrombosis in ET is 2-tiered and considers low- and high-risk categories based on the respective absence or presence of either age > 60 years or history of thrombosis. In an international study of 891 patients with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined ET, we identified additional independent risk factors including cardiovascular risk factors and JAK2V617F. Accordingly, we assigned risk scores based on multivariable analysis-derived hazard ratios (HRs) to age > 60 years (HR = 1.5; 1 point), thrombosis history (HR = 1.9; 2 points), cardiovascular risk factors (HR = 1.6; 1 point), and JAK2V617F (HR = 2.0; 2 points) and subsequently devised a 3-tiered prognostic model (low-risk = < 2 points; intermediate-risk = 2 points; and high-risk = > 2 points) using a training set of 535 patients and validated the results in the remaining cohort (n = 356; internal validation set) and in an external validation set (n = 329). Considering all 3 cohorts (n = 1220), the 3-tiered new prognostic model (low-risk n = 474 vs intermediate-risk n = 471 vs high-risk n = 275), with a respective thrombosis risk of 1.03% of patients/y versus 2.35% of patients/y versus 3.56% of patients/y, outperformed the 2-tiered (low-risk 0.95% of patients/y vs high-risk 2.86% of patients/y) conventional risk stratification in predicting future vascular events.

Unraveling the genetic underpinnings of myeloproliferative neoplasms and understanding their effect on disease course and response to therapy: proceedings from the 6th International Post-ASH Symposium.

Immediately after the annual scientific meeting of the American Society of Hematology (ASH), a select group of clinical and laboratory investigators in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) is summoned to a post-ASH conference on chronic myeloid leukemia and the BCR-ABL1-negative MPN. The 6th such meeting occurred on December 13­14,2011, in La Jolla, California, USA, under the direction of its founder,Dr. Tariq Mughal. The current document is the first of two reports on this post-ASH event and summarizes the most recent preclinical and clinical advances in polycythemia vera, essential thrombocythemia,and primary myelofibrosis.

Blood tests may predict early primary myelofibrosis in patients presenting with essential thrombocythemia.

According to World Health Organization (WHO)-defined criteria, patients presenting clinically as essential thrombocythemia (ET) may show early primary myelofibrosis (PMF) with accompanying thrombocythemia [1]. Previous clinicopathological studies revealed that laboratory parameters like gender-matched hemoglobin (Hb), white blood cell (WBC) count, and particularly lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) values are significantly different in PMF [2]. By strictly applying the WHO criteria, our investigation was aimed to study sensitivity and specificity of these features in an exploratory cohort of 536 patients and to validate the results on an independently recruited series of 321 strictly corresponding patients. The discriminatory power of these parameters (Hb, WBC, and LDH) was tested by plotting their receiver operating characteristic curves. The best performance was found for LDH (areas under the curve, AUC 5 0.7059). WBC and Hb had superimposable curves, with AUC of 0.6279 and 0.6257, respectively. A diagnostic algorithm was generated by applying these parameters in a stepwise fashion. Nearly half of the patients could be correctly allocated to WHO-defined ET or early PMF in both cohorts investigated. It is important to note that this result does not substitute bone marrow morphology with hematological parameters, however, in clinical practice may alert physicians to get more suspicious of early PMF in a patient presumably presenting with ET.

Survival and disease progression in essential thrombocythemia are significantly influenced by accurate morphologic diagnosis: an international study.

PURPOSE: The WHO diagnostic criteria underscore the role of bone marrow (BM) morphology in distinguishing essential thrombocythemia (ET) from early/prefibrotic primary myelofibrosis (PMF). This study examined the clinical relevance of such a distinction. METHODS: Representatives from seven international centers of excellence for myeloproliferative neoplasms convened to create a clinicopathologic database of patients previously diagnosed as having ET (N = 1,104). Study eligibility criteria included availability of treatment-naive BM specimens obtained within 1 year of diagnosis. All bone marrows subsequently underwent a central re-review. RESULTS: Diagnosis was confirmed as ET in 891 patients (81%) and was revised to early/prefibrotic PMF in 180 (16%); 33 patients were not evaluable. In early/prefibrotic PMF compared with ET, the 10-year survival rates (76% and 89%, respectively) and 15-year survival rates (59% and 80%, respectively), leukemic transformation rates at 10 years (5.8% and 0.7%, respectively) and 15 years (11.7% and 2.1%, respectively), and rates of progression to overt myelofibrosis at 10 years (12.3% and 0.8%, respectively) and 15 years (16.9% and 9.3%) were significantly worse. The respective death, leukemia, and overt myelofibrosis incidence rates per 100 patient-years for early/prefibrotic PMF compared with ET were 2.7% and 1.3% (relative risk [RR], 2.1; P < .001), 0.6% and 0.1% (RR, 5.2; P = .001), and 1% and 0.5% (RR, 2.0; P = .04). Multivariable analysis confirmed these findings and also identified age older than 60 years (hazard ratio [HR], 6.7), leukocyte count greater than 11 × 10(9)/L (HR, 2.01), anemia (HR, 2.95), and thrombosis history (HR, 2.81) as additional risk factors for survival. Thrombosis and JAK2V617F incidence rates were similar between the two groups. Survival in ET was similar to the sex- and age-standardized European population. CONCLUSION: This study validates the clinical relevance of strict adherence to WHO criteria in the diagnosis of ET and provides important information on survival, disease complication rates, and prognostic factors in strictly WHO-defined ET and early/prefibrotic PMF.

Risk factors for arterial and venous thrombosis in WHO-defined essential thrombocythemia: an international study of 891 patients.

In an international collaborative study, a central histologic review identified 891 patients with essential thrombocythemia, strictly defined by World Health Organization criteria. After a median follow-up of 6.2 years, 109 (12%) patients experienced arterial (n = 79) or venous (n = 37) thrombosis. In multivariable analysis, predictors of arterial thrombosis included age more than 60 years (P = .03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.7), thrombosis history (P = .003; HR = 2.1), cardiovascular risk factors including tobacco use, hypertension, or diabetes mellitus (P = .007; HR = 1.9), leukocytosis (> 11 × 10(9)/L; P = .04; HR = 1.7), and presence of JAK2V617F (P = .009; HR = 2.6). In contrast, only male gender predicted venous thrombosis. Platelet count more than 1000 × 10(9)/L was associated with a lower risk of arterial thrombosis (P = .007; HR = 0.4). These associations, except the one with leukocytosis, remained significant (or near significant) when analysis was restricted to JAK2V617F-positive cases. The current study clarifies the contribution of specific disease and host characteristics to the risk of arterial versus venous thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia.